FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.74 – 113.78

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

435 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 106.64Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 69.06Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 134.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±12.8

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 10.62Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 64.03Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 39.13Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 346, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 346, 11415

Auto

40.6 13%

Teleop

188.8 61%

Endgame

78.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11252, 10257, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 10257, 3258

Auto

28.9 28%

Teleop

43.8 43%

Endgame

29.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score309.7pts

Blue projected score113.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196
Score range: 80–344
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 189.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.7Season APEX180.8

40.6Auto28.9

188.8Teleop43.8

78.2Endgame29.8

46Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	21
teleop	298	46
endgame	75	34
foul	20	5
total	435	106

Result

Final score

435 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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