FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.16 – 113.84

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.1 ±12.8

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 65.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 22.34Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 50.58Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±14.9

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -14.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 24.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 104.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5804, 9709, 5830

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5804, 9709, 5830

Auto

26.3 20%

Teleop

86.8 65%

Endgame

21.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6802, 10370, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6802, 10370, 1262

Auto

25.1 21%

Teleop

61.0 51%

Endgame

33.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.2pts

Blue projected score113.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 80–172
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 190.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.1Season APEX220.6

26.3Auto25.1

86.8Teleop61

21.1Endgame33.3

50Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	31
teleop	18	112
endgame	3	43
foul	0	0
total	47	186

Result

Final score

47 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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