FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.63 – 221.52

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.8 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 149.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 60.56Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 70.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.7 ±10.5

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 30.28Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 110.99Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 80.25Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 3136, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 3136, 9003

Auto

44.3 16%

Teleop

170.7 63%

Endgame

57.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3939, 401, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 401, 4456

Auto

37.9 18%

Teleop

130.2 61%

Endgame

46.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.6pts

Blue projected score221.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 188–315
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 187.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.8Season APEX422.7

44.3Auto37.9

170.7Teleop130.2

57.1Endgame46.1

49Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	42
teleop	241	182
endgame	43	60
foul	50	0
total	397	284

Result

Final score

397 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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