FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.42 – 54.88

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±14

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 23.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 73.95Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 87.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.6 ±12.2

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 8.65Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 11.9Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 34.33Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11443, 540, 977

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11443, 540, 977

Auto

21.3 12%

Teleop

106.0 59%

Endgame

51.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 617, 1522, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 617, 1522, 5724

Auto

17.4 39%

Teleop

11.4 25%

Endgame

16.3 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.4pts

Blue projected score54.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.5
Score range: 21–219
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.8Season APEX146.6

21.3Auto17.4

106Teleop11.4

51.7Endgame16.3

81Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	183	39
endgame	55	37
foul	0	0
total	270	90

Result

Final score

270 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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