FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.36 – 174.68

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.3 ±13.3

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 82.96Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 21.91Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -16.51Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.5 ±10.5

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 66.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 37.92Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 69.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5115, 9709, 6802

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5115, 9709, 6802

Auto

20.0 23%

Teleop

57.0 64%

Endgame

11.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5804, 3072, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5804, 3072, 346

Auto

36.4 22%

Teleop

105.3 63%

Endgame

25.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.4pts

Blue projected score174.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.3
Score range: 54–209
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.3Season APEX458.5

20Auto36.4

57Teleop105.3

11.4Endgame25.4

69Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	22
teleop	71	104
endgame	21	68
foul	0	0
total	118	194

Result

Final score

118 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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