FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.78 – 68.78

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±11.2

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 23.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 191.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 2.67Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±13.9

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 26.77Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 0.19Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 41.82Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3939, 2106, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 2106, 11252

Auto

49.2 23%

Teleop

116.9 55%

Endgame

44.8 21%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10370, 3361, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10370, 3361, 10004

Auto

18.3 24%

Teleop

29.3 38%

Endgame

29.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.8pts

Blue projected score68.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149
Score range: 35–252
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.8Season APEX233

49.2Auto18.3

116.9Teleop29.3

44.8Endgame29.3

101Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	21
teleop	165	22
endgame	67	23
foul	0	0
total	311	66

Result

Final score

311 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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