FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.5 – 279.13

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 69.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.1 ±14.5

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 15.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 100.46Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 1.8Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.9 ±10.4

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 34.47Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 138.09Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 106.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11443, 401, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11443, 401, 1522

Auto

35.7 31%

Teleop

64.2 56%

Endgame

15.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5724, 11415, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 11415, 1262

Auto

38.8 14%

Teleop

166.3 60%

Endgame

70.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.5pts

Blue projected score279.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.6
Score range: 84–313
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.1Season APEX363.9

35.7Auto38.8

64.2Teleop166.3

15Endgame70.3

68Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	34
teleop	141	143
endgame	62	104
foul	0	5
total	249	286

Result

Final score

249 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 69.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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