FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.51 – 267.1

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±12.2

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 60.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 35.38Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 67.06Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±10.5

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 39.27Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 82.98Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 144.85Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 1885, 10257

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 1885, 10257

Auto

23.9 15%

Teleop

104.6 66%

Endgame

28.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 977, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 977, 422

Auto

51.7 20%

Teleop

155.7 61%

Endgame

48.3 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.5pts

Blue projected score267.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.6
Score range: 130–300
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.9Season APEX407.4

23.9Auto51.7

104.6Teleop155.7

28.8Endgame48.3

54Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	37
teleop	99	210
endgame	57	103
foul	15	0
total	194	350

Result

Final score

194 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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