FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.46 – 145.36

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.4 ±15.8

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 1.9Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 0.49Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 14.07Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240 ±14.8

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 24.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 36.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 84.26Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11252, 1522, 11443

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 1522, 11443

Auto

15.5 100%

Teleop

-6.7 0%

Endgame

5.9 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10370, 3072, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10370, 3072, 5115

Auto

22.8 16%

Teleop

75.1 53%

Endgame

44.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score16.5pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.9
Score range: -18–179
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 186.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.4Season APEX240

15.5Auto22.8

-6.7Teleop75.1

5.9Endgame44.3

121Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	31
teleop	24	88
endgame	8	63
foul	0	0
total	51	182

Result

Final score

51 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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