FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.28 – 193.54

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±9.8

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 112.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 63.5Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 113.94Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.2 ±11.6

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 87.13Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 78.13Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 28.28Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 5804, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 5804, 401

Auto

56.1 20%

Teleop

163.3 57%

Endgame

65.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 977, 5115, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 5115, 5724

Auto

26.4 14%

Teleop

115.6 60%

Endgame

49.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score290.3pts

Blue projected score193.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.7
Score range: 157–327
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.9Season APEX251.2

56.1Auto26.4

163.3Teleop115.6

65.8Endgame49.7

48Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	14
teleop	229	119
endgame	94	76
foul	10	5
total	399	214

Result

Final score

399 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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