FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.37 – 82.49

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.6 ±11.7

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 34.01Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 43.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 68.42Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.1 ±10.5

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 62.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX -7.39Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 27.66Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9709, 5724, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9709, 5724, 3136

Auto

21.5 15%

Teleop

101.9 70%

Endgame

21.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 3361, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 346, 3361, 1885

Auto

26.2 29%

Teleop

53.0 58%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.4pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.9
Score range: 48–180
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 187.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.6Season APEX401.1

21.5Auto26.2

101.9Teleop53

21.9Endgame12.7

71Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	44	130
endgame	26	21
foul	0	5
total	82	174

Result

Final score

82 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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