FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.1 – 202.45

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±11.2

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 133.95Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 29.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 48.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.3 ±10.5

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 31.71Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 65.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 105.65Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 10004, 5830

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 10004, 5830

Auto

39.8 19%

Teleop

139.1 65%

Endgame

34.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 9003, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 9003, 619

Auto

26.2 13%

Teleop

122.7 61%

Endgame

51.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.1pts

Blue projected score202.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.7
Score range: 169–245
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX368.3

39.8Auto26.2

139.1Teleop122.7

34.9Endgame51.8

95Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	49
teleop	156	123
endgame	96	71
foul	10	20
total	327	263

Result

Final score

327 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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