FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.56 – 264.03

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±10.5

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 89.58Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 75.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 82.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.1 ±11

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 27.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 148.31Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 87.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4456, 5804, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4456, 5804, 540

Auto

22.1 9%

Teleop

150.8 63%

Endgame

64.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3939, 11415, 977

/ 100 compat

Projected

264 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 11415, 977

Auto

24.2 9%

Teleop

164.3 63%

Endgame

73.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.6pts

Blue projected score264pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 215–297
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.5Season APEX404.1

22.1Auto24.2

150.8Teleop164.3

64.7Endgame73.6

55Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	40
teleop	121	118
endgame	45	40
foul	15	35
total	221	233

Result

Final score

221 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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