FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.16 – 95.57

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.3 ±12.8

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 31.07Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 35.65Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 1.44Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±12.8

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -5.95Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 41.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 60.48Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10004, 9709, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10004, 9709, 11252

Auto

15.2 22%

Teleop

31.1 46%

Endgame

21.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1522, 5830, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 5830, 3136

Auto

19.7 21%

Teleop

75.5 79%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.2pts

Blue projected score95.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 35–129
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.3Season APEX229.9

15.2Auto19.7

31.1Teleop75.5

21.8Endgame-0.2

122Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	38	128
endgame	20	27
foul	5	5
total	77	182

Result

Final score

77 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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