FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.45 – 235.01

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 123.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.6 ±8.7

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 150.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 121.6Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 89.19Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.6 ±14

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 195.85Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 15.46Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 23.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 401, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 401, 346

Auto

75.8 21%

Teleop

231.6 64%

Endgame

51.7 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 617, 11443

/ 100 compat

Projected

235 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2106, 617, 11443

Auto

52.2 24%

Teleop

131.9 60%

Endgame

37.3 17%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score361.5pts

Blue projected score235pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.4
Score range: 202–394
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 183.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.6Season APEX425.6

75.8Auto52.2

231.6Teleop131.9

51.7Endgame37.3

38Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	66
teleop	74	85
endgame	42	15
foul	10	10
total	174	176

Result

Final score

174 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 123.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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