FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.8 – 186.59

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 69.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±11

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 81.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 37.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 90.53Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±14

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 69.81Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 32.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 83.95Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5804, 3939, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5804, 3939, 5115

Auto

24.1 12%

Teleop

124.7 61%

Endgame

54.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 10370, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 10370, 540

Auto

16.1 9%

Teleop

91.5 52%

Endgame

67.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.8pts

Blue projected score186.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.2
Score range: 154–243
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.3Season APEX368.8

24.1Auto16.1

124.7Teleop91.5

54.7Endgame67.2

64Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	17
teleop	58	73
endgame	29	45
foul	5	0
total	123	135

Result

Final score

123 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 69.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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