FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.15 – 310.42

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.5 ±12.1

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 26.93Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 87.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 38.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.9 ±10.5

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 107.72Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 108.32Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 94.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1885, 977, 3072

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 977, 3072

Auto

19.7 13%

Teleop

92.3 62%

Endgame

37.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 619, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 619, 4456

Auto

26.7 9%

Teleop

186.6 60%

Endgame

96.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.1pts

Blue projected score310.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.3
Score range: 119–343
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 184.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.5Season APEX418.9

19.7Auto26.7

92.3Teleop186.6

37.5Endgame96.5

55Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	43
teleop	77	166
endgame	40	40
foul	0	0
total	143	249

Result

Final score

143 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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