FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.59 – 136.64

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.1 ±11.7

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 65.29Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX -2.95Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 43.25Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±11.7

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -22.72Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 134.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 24.41Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10257, 3361, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10257, 3361, 5724

Auto

35.4 34%

Teleop

35.2 34%

Endgame

32.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6802, 11415, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6802, 11415, 3258

Auto

27.4 20%

Teleop

76.7 57%

Endgame

30.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.6pts

Blue projected score136.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 73–170
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 185.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.1Season APEX292.8

35.4Auto27.4

35.2Teleop76.7

32.4Endgame30.2

68Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	33
teleop	47	142
endgame	16	33
foul	0	5
total	84	213

Result

Final score

84 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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