FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.07 – 186.02

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±12.7

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 90.89Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 0.39Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 13.79Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±14.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 143.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 16.67Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 26.04Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5115, 11252, 617

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5115, 11252, 617

Auto

22.2 27%

Teleop

40.0 48%

Endgame

21.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 11443, 9709

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 11443, 9709

Auto

46.6 26%

Teleop

106.7 59%

Endgame

27.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score186pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81
Score range: 71–220
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 186.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.5Season APEX330.9

22.2Auto46.6

40Teleop106.7

21.5Endgame27

114Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	44
teleop	50	164
endgame	21	21
foul	5	0
total	95	229

Result

Final score

95 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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