FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.28 – 192.7

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 59.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 122.86Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 165Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 7.42Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.1 ±12.2

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 149.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 11.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 31.73Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 422, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 422, 3361

Auto

51.5 18%

Teleop

164.4 56%

Endgame

76.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 9709, 3072

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 9709, 3072

Auto

29.3 16%

Teleop

109.4 60%

Endgame

43.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score295.3pts

Blue projected score192.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.6
Score range: 156–332
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.4Season APEX292.1

51.5Auto29.3

164.4Teleop109.4

76.2Endgame43.7

41Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	27
teleop	99	127
endgame	38	40
foul	0	15
total	193	209

Result

Final score

193 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 59.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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