FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168 – 249.84

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.3 ±11.7

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 39.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 27.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 101.3Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.8 ±9.9

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 127.87Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 86.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 35.06Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3072, 5830, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3072, 5830, 619

Auto

19.3 12%

Teleop

94.6 57%

Endgame

53.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 540, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 540, 1885

Auto

33.2 14%

Teleop

153.6 63%

Endgame

55.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168pts

Blue projected score249.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.8
Score range: 135–283
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.3Season APEX459.8

19.3Auto33.2

94.6Teleop153.6

53.1Endgame55.9

52Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	38
teleop	128	118
endgame	33	53
foul	0	0
total	200	209

Result

Final score

200 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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