FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.58 – 89.86

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±10.4

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 37.49Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 16.47Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 31.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.3 ±12.2

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -5.05Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 95.3Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX -0.39Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5724, 3258, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 3258, 3939

Auto

20.1 24%

Teleop

35.3 42%

Endgame

28.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1522, 4456, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 4456, 3361

Auto

14.3 15%

Teleop

53.9 58%

Endgame

24.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.3
Score range: 52–124
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.7Season APEX204.3

20.1Auto14.3

35.3Teleop53.9

28Endgame24.2

132Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	83	41
endgame	28	22
foul	0	0
total	141	83

Result

Final score

141 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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