FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.08 – 258.73

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±11

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 29.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 104.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 69.94Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.8 ±14.9

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 139.74Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 73.29Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 45.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10004, 1262, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10004, 1262, 9003

Auto

31.3 15%

Teleop

115.3 56%

Endgame

58.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 10257, 10370

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 10257, 10370

Auto

37.0 15%

Teleop

146.1 58%

Endgame

69.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.1pts

Blue projected score258.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.6
Score range: 170–293
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 187.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.4Season APEX344.8

31.3Auto37

115.3Teleop146.1

58.7Endgame69.3

42Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	33
teleop	118	84
endgame	59	61
foul	5	10
total	195	188

Result

Final score

195 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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