FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.47 – 138.62

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 67.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 698.3 ±9.9

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 75.46Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 77.49Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 185.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±11.7

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 89.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 60.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -11.48Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 346, 977, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 346, 977, 2106

Auto

65.1 19%

Teleop

201.6 60%

Endgame

70.4 21%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5804, 3136, 6802

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5804, 3136, 6802

Auto

24.0 18%

Teleop

102.6 76%

Endgame

9.2 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score338.5pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.9
Score range: 105–372
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 186.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

698.3Season APEX249.8

65.1Auto24

201.6Teleop102.6

70.4Endgame9.2

42Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	22
teleop	289	42
endgame	56	13
foul	0	0
total	411	77

Result

Final score

411 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 67.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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