FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.24 – 317.34

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.3 ±14.9

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 1.8Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 50.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 150.08Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.5 ±10.5

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 87.13Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 128.83Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 101.38Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11252, 10370, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 10370, 11415

Auto

26.0 13%

Teleop

109.3 56%

Endgame

60.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5115, 422, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5115, 422, 1262

Auto

52.3 17%

Teleop

195.2 63%

Endgame

61.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.2pts

Blue projected score317.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.1
Score range: 169–350
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.3Season APEX442.5

26Auto52.3

109.3Teleop195.2

60.9Endgame61.8

44Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	67
teleop	83	220
endgame	49	79
foul	0	5
total	161	371

Result

Final score

161 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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