FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.62 – 128.22

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±11.7

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX -0.26Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 69.1Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 87.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11.7

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 33.22Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 96.99Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -1.99Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 617, 10257, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 617, 10257, 540

Auto

18.5 12%

Teleop

78.4 51%

Endgame

56.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10004, 5804, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10004, 5804, 1522

Auto

29.4 24%

Teleop

77.9 63%

Endgame

16.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.6pts

Blue projected score128.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 94–191
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 186.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX234.8

18.5Auto29.4

78.4Teleop77.9

56.4Endgame16

121Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	22
teleop	81	40
endgame	13	22
foul	60	0
total	190	84

Result

Final score

190 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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