FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.1 – 208.29

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.5 ±9.8

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 182.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 3.76Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 19.84Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.3 ±11.7

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 24.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 69.23Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 114.4Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2106, 3361, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2106, 3361, 3258

Auto

50.8 24%

Teleop

111.9 54%

Endgame

45.4 22%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5830, 977, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 977, 401

Auto

31.9 15%

Teleop

133.2 64%

Endgame

43.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.1pts

Blue projected score208.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 173–241
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.5Season APEX376.3

50.8Auto31.9

111.9Teleop133.2

45.4Endgame43

84Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	41
teleop	119	184
endgame	12	44
foul	0	5
total	198	274

Result

Final score

198 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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