FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.08 – 209.3

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.1 ±12.7

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 31.69Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -12.8Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 64.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±10.5

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 49.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 70.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 89.1Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3072, 6802, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3072, 6802, 9003

Auto

21.7 28%

Teleop

45.2 59%

Endgame

9.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 346, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 346, 4456

Auto

35.5 18%

Teleop

135.5 67%

Endgame

31.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score209.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.2
Score range: 50–242
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.1Season APEX513.8

21.7Auto35.5

45.2Teleop135.5

9.8Endgame31.4

42Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	20
teleop	55	222
endgame	34	42
foul	15	0
total	123	284

Result

Final score

123 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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