FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.03 – 177.92

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 71 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.1 ±13.5

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 36.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 85.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 120.81Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.6 ±10.7

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 82.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 98.5Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX -2.76Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10370, 5804, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

243 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10370, 5804, 422

Auto

52.8 22%

Teleop

136.6 57%

Endgame

49.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 619, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 619, 11252

Auto

10.4 6%

Teleop

93.1 54%

Endgame

69.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243pts

Blue projected score177.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.1
Score range: 145–276
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 181.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.1Season APEX428.6

52.8Auto10.4

136.6Teleop93.1

49.2Endgame69.8

42Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	25
teleop	217	110
endgame	48	99
foul	10	0
total	329	234

Result

Final score

329 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 71 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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