FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.06 – 144.93

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.1 ±11.2

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -4.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 209.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 46.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±13.9

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 76.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 43.15Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 25.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6802, 2106, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6802, 2106, 10004

Auto

61.0 24%

Teleop

136.1 54%

Endgame

56.2 22%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 3258, 10370

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 3258, 10370

Auto

27.1 19%

Teleop

86.1 62%

Endgame

26.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.1pts

Blue projected score144.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.1
Score range: 108–289
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.1Season APEX274

61Auto27.1

136.1Teleop86.1

56.2Endgame26.6

54Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	10
teleop	123	81
endgame	44	25
foul	5	0
total	236	116

Result

Final score

236 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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