FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.46 – 65.14

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.8 ±12.2

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -6.42Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 13.48Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 80.4Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276 ±13.9

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 11.09Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 25.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 28.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1522, 3258, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 3258, 5115

Auto

15.8 22%

Teleop

48.5 67%

Endgame

8.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11443, 10004, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11443, 10004, 3939

Auto

11.7 18%

Teleop

22.9 35%

Endgame

31.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.5pts

Blue projected score65.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 32–120
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 183.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.8Season APEX276

15.8Auto11.7

48.5Teleop22.9

8.1Endgame31.4

97Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	87	44
endgame	32	38
foul	0	0
total	146	108

Result

Final score

146 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.