FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.46 – 177.16

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506 ±10.5

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 50.61Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 69.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 61.64Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.7 ±12.2

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 37.05Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 107.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 32.28Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 346, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 346, 9003

Auto

32.5 19%

Teleop

128.5 74%

Endgame

13.7 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1885, 1262, 9709

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 1262, 9709

Auto

32.9 19%

Teleop

108.8 63%

Endgame

31.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.5pts

Blue projected score177.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 144–214
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 183.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506Season APEX197.7

32.5Auto32.9

128.5Teleop108.8

13.7Endgame31.5

37Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	23
teleop	122	88
endgame	36	41
foul	0	0
total	207	152

Result

Final score

207 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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