FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.74 – 256.58

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.5 ±12.7

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -12.9Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 8.81Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 68.83Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 114.19Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 143.67Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX -1.28Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6802, 617, 977

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6802, 617, 977

Auto

8.1 15%

Teleop

25.5 49%

Endgame

18.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 11415, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 11415, 3361

Auto

47.2 18%

Teleop

165.5 63%

Endgame

51.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.7pts

Blue projected score256.6pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.8
Score range: 32–290
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.5Season APEX462.9

8.1Auto47.2

25.5Teleop165.5

18.9Endgame51.6

121Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	46
teleop	38	171
endgame	9	82
foul	0	0
total	70	299

Result

Final score

70 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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