FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.2 – 152.18

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.1 ±9.8

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 92.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 42.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 128.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.5 ±11.7

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 56.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 89Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 6.27Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 3939, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 3939, 1262

Auto

10.4 4%

Teleop

141.4 56%

Endgame

101.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 5115, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 346, 5115, 11252

Auto

22.5 15%

Teleop

98.4 65%

Endgame

30.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.2pts

Blue projected score152.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111
Score range: 119–296
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.1Season APEX410.5

10.4Auto22.5

141.4Teleop98.4

101.6Endgame30.5

112Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	112	65
endgame	51	24
foul	0	15
total	180	141

Result

Final score

180 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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