FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.8 – 169.82

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±14

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 37.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 31.09Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 107.01Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.9 ±9.8

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 104.99Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 19.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 45.55Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10370, 1885, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10370, 1885, 619

Auto

26.9 15%

Teleop

103.1 56%

Endgame

53.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 10004, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 10004, 3136

Auto

27.5 16%

Teleop

120.6 70%

Endgame

23.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.8pts

Blue projected score169.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6
Score range: 137–209
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.6Season APEX428.9

26.9Auto27.5

103.1Teleop120.6

53.1Endgame23.9

38Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	54
teleop	77	137
endgame	60	12
foul	0	0
total	161	203

Result

Final score

161 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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