FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320 – 81.05

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

474 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.7 ±10.5

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 35.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 163.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 120.45Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.7 ±13.3

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 43.85Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -12.69Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 49.89Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9003, 2106, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

320 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 2106, 11415

Auto

37.5 12%

Teleop

198.9 65%

Endgame

68.8 23%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 977, 1522, 9709

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 1522, 9709

Auto

18.8 25%

Teleop

36.7 48%

Endgame

20.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score320pts

Blue projected score81.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 239
Score range: 49–352
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 176.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.7Season APEX173.7

37.5Auto18.8

198.9Teleop36.7

68.8Endgame20.3

109Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	22
teleop	294	69
endgame	110	31
foul	0	10
total	474	132

Result

Final score

474 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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