FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.37 – 116.95

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±14.4

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 16.27Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 13.35Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 32.75Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±11

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 2.96Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 14.31Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 99.68Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3258, 11443, 3072

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 11443, 3072

Auto

22.1 46%

Teleop

14.6 30%

Endgame

11.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3361, 617, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

117 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 617, 5804

Auto

26.3 25%

Teleop

59.2 56%

Endgame

20.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.4pts

Blue projected score117pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.6
Score range: 29–150
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.2Season APEX210.2

22.1Auto26.3

14.6Teleop59.2

11.4Endgame20.4

126Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	31	50
endgame	16	12
foul	0	0
total	64	99

Result

Final score

64 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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