FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.4 – 255.35

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 60 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.5 ±9.8

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 25.62Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 94.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 17.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.8 ±10.7

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 108.04Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 17.94Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 129.37Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5724, 540, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 540, 10004

Auto

22.1 15%

Teleop

82.8 57%

Endgame

40.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 6802, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 6802, 422

Auto

69.4 28%

Teleop

129.8 52%

Endgame

50.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score255.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.9
Score range: 104–288
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 181.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.5Season APEX468.8

22.1Auto69.4

82.8Teleop129.8

40.1Endgame50.2

115Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	47
teleop	94	124
endgame	78	14
foul	0	0
total	187	185

Result

Final score

187 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 60 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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