FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.15 – 116.7

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.7 ±10.7

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 34.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 84.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 83.85Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.7 ±15.3

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 79.89Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 5.52Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 31.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5830, 540, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 540, 346

Auto

31.9 16%

Teleop

121.9 61%

Endgame

44.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4456, 11252, 11443

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4456, 11252, 11443

Auto

18.3 16%

Teleop

70.9 60%

Endgame

28.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.2pts

Blue projected score116.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.5
Score range: 80–240
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.7Season APEX196.7

31.9Auto18.3

121.9Teleop70.9

44.6Endgame28.7

81Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	10
teleop	129	55
endgame	35	59
foul	0	0
total	194	124

Result

Final score

194 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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