FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.17 – 173.41

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 104.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.8 ±14.5

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 27.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 154.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 22.34Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±11.7

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 81.89Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 68.18Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 23.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9709, 2106, 10370

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9709, 2106, 10370

Auto

31.8 15%

Teleop

116.3 56%

Endgame

59.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 619, 10257, 977

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 10257, 977

Auto

20.9 12%

Teleop

97.2 55%

Endgame

58.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.2pts

Blue projected score173.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.8
Score range: 142–235
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 174.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.8Season APEX381.1

31.8Auto20.9

116.3Teleop97.2

59.1Endgame58.6

145Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	39
teleop	159	148
endgame	69	99
foul	5	0
total	300	286

Result

Final score

300 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 104.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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