FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.33 – 163.39

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 3.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±11.7

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 14.13Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 11.32Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 54.88Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260 ±14.4

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 35.89Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 18.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 108.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 11252, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 11252, 3136

Auto

15.6 20%

Teleop

50.4 65%

Endgame

11.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 11443, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 11443, 5804

Auto

27.4 17%

Teleop

75.1 47%

Endgame

57.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score163.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.1
Score range: 48–195
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 178.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.5Season APEX260

15.6Auto27.4

50.4Teleop75.1

11Endgame57.9

146Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	52	100
endgame	8	18
foul	0	15
total	78	159

Result

Final score

78 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 3.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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