FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.19 – 259.09

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 107.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±11.6

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 54.5Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 15.76Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 9.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.5 ±12.2

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 156.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 69.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 32.61Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4456, 617, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4456, 617, 3258

Auto

-1.3 0%

Teleop

53.7 68%

Endgame

26.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 3072, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 3072, 1522

Auto

31.1 12%

Teleop

150.7 60%

Endgame

68.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.2pts

Blue projected score259.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.9
Score range: 47–292
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.7Season APEX229.5

-1.3Auto31.1

53.7Teleop150.7

26.5Endgame68.8

147Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	29
teleop	61	54
endgame	28	11
foul	35	15
total	145	109

Result

Final score

145 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 107.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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