FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.89 – 116.03

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.6 ±11.6

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 39.67Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 146.45Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 105.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.3 ±11.2

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 22.74Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 65.03Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 28.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1885, 5115, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 5115, 11415

Auto

15.5 6%

Teleop

187.4 67%

Endgame

75.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5830, 346, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 346, 3939

Auto

31.6 29%

Teleop

65.4 59%

Endgame

13.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291.9pts

Blue projected score116pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.9
Score range: 84–324
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.6Season APEX466.3

15.5Auto31.6

187.4Teleop65.4

75.7Endgame13.6

154Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	18
teleop	164	83
endgame	43	40
foul	0	0
total	247	141

Result

Final score

247 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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