FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.33 – 240.37

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 80.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±14.9

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 24.3Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 76.2Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 35.83Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.6 ±9.3

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 114.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 53.12Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 72.86Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11443, 3136, 10257

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11443, 3136, 10257

Auto

13.7 10%

Teleop

80.7 60%

Endgame

41.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 619, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2106, 619, 5804

Auto

51.3 22%

Teleop

139.0 61%

Endgame

38.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score240.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104
Score range: 105–271
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 174.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.4Season APEX606.6

13.7Auto51.3

80.7Teleop139

41.2Endgame38

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	52
teleop	77	224
endgame	30	109
foul	5	0
total	152	385

Result

Final score

152 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 80.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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