FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.93 – 226.6

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.4 ±11

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 23.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 165.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 31.77Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±9.9

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 50.55Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 97.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 78.77Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 977, 1262, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 1262, 3361

Auto

27.4 12%

Teleop

122.2 55%

Endgame

70.9 32%

Strengths

· 1262 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3072, 422, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3072, 422, 540

Auto

42.2 20%

Teleop

131.7 62%

Endgame

39.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.9pts

Blue projected score226.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.7
Score range: 191–257
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.4Season APEX502.4

27.4Auto42.2

122.2Teleop131.7

70.9Endgame39

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	49
teleop	104	160
endgame	56	90
foul	0	5
total	182	304

Result

Final score

182 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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