FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.42 – 168.22

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±14.9

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 38.25Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 21.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 42.68Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.9 ±11.2

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 85.23Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 39.24Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 43.75Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3939, 10370, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3939, 10370, 1522

Auto

21.2 22%

Teleop

45.3 48%

Endgame

28.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 5724, 6802

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 346, 5724, 6802

Auto

31.7 19%

Teleop

86.1 52%

Endgame

49.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score168.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.8
Score range: 70–200
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 176.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.9Season APEX372.9

21.2Auto31.7

45.3Teleop86.1

28.8Endgame49.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	43
teleop	30	34
endgame	32	2
foul	0	0
total	75	79

Result

Final score

75 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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