FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.83 – 144.6

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 254

Prediction missed · off by 95.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.6 ±11.2

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 55.76Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 2.12Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 145.95Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.2 ±12.1

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX -1.45Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 110.43Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 35.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9709, 3258, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9709, 3258, 401

Auto

20.5 10%

Teleop

128.8 65%

Endgame

49.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 5115, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 5115, 4456

Auto

3.5 2%

Teleop

90.4 62%

Endgame

51.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.8pts

Blue projected score144.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.2
Score range: 113–236
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 175.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.6Season APEX287.2

20.5Auto3.5

128.8Teleop90.4

49.9Endgame51.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	22
teleop	68	155
endgame	9	62
foul	0	15
total	122	254

Result

Final score

122 – 254

Prediction missed · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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