FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.94 – 53.7

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±11

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 110.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 46.93Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 21.77Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.4 ±13.3

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 26.77Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 14.65Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 12.28Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 10004, 617

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 10004, 617

Auto

25.5 15%

Teleop

112.9 66%

Endgame

33.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11252, 1885, 5830

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 1885, 5830

Auto

10.8 21%

Teleop

25.0 48%

Endgame

15.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.9pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.2
Score range: 22–211
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335Season APEX141.4

25.5Auto10.8

112.9Teleop25

33.2Endgame15.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	17
teleop	99	67
endgame	50	5
foul	5	0
total	167	89

Result

Final score

167 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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