FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.48 – 138.06

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 76.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.7 ±11.2

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -1.1Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 111.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 52.13Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±11

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 36.61Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 58.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 42.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10257, 1262, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10257, 1262, 346

Auto

34.0 21%

Teleop

92.8 57%

Endgame

36.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3072, 5724, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3072, 5724, 3939

Auto

16.7 13%

Teleop

69.3 52%

Endgame

46.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.5pts

Blue projected score138.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 106–194
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.7Season APEX238.7

34Auto16.7

92.8Teleop69.3

36.2Endgame46.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	26
teleop	183	38
endgame	66	38
foul	0	15
total	295	117

Result

Final score

295 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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