FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.08 – 135.42

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.8 ±11.6

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 6.09Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 30.66Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 46.33Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.9 ±13.3

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 15.35Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 63.7Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 56.37Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 617, 3939, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 617, 3939, 1885

Auto

18.3 25%

Teleop

38.3 53%

Endgame

15.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1522, 9003, 10257

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 9003, 10257

Auto

24.4 20%

Teleop

63.6 52%

Endgame

34.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score135.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.3
Score range: 46–172
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 204.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.8Season APEX212.9

18.3Auto24.4

38.3Teleop63.6

15.9Endgame34.1

132Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	20
teleop	46	45
endgame	40	12
foul	5	0
total	96	77

Result

Final score

96 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.